The SEC occupies a wide spectrum of expectations as the league expands to 16 teams this season. For some, every season is national championship-or-bust and anything less constitutes a complete failure. Others are perfectly content with scraping by towards a bowl game, or even stringing together a couple conference wins amid a loaded slate of games.
All viewpoints are completely valid and can change slightly from year to year, fueled by recent context and largely subjective perception. Those dead summer months between the end of spring practice and the start of fall camp can often stoke expectations as teams quietly prepare for the upcoming season.
While there's no metric that can truly encapsulate each team's outlook, win total projections do provide some general insight into where things stand. Las Vegas attempts to set a performance bar for each team based on the roster construction and the coaching makeup, among other variables, and comparing those to the strength of the impending schedule.
That process can give us some interesting numbers to analyze in the offseason. Win total projections certainly aren't the gospel truth -- at least a few teams will either far exceed or fall well short of the figure -- but do they do give a good sense of the conference's order.
That's especially relevant now that the SEC is welcoming new members to its ranks. With Texas and Oklahoma joining the fold, win totals serve as a general prediction as to how well they'll perform against heightened competition. For Texas, at least, Vegas thinks the transition should go pretty well.
Let's take a look at each SEC team's projected win total for the 2024 season and predict whether they're more likely to hit the over or under.
Alabama
Over/under 9.5 wins
Wins: Western Kentucky, USF, at Wisconsin, at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Missouri, at LSU, Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn
Losses: Georgia, at Tennessee
Analysis: There's no reason to expect significant drop off from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide will still be right around the top of the conference and in the College Football Playoff conversation all year long. That being said, Alabama did lose some key players to the transfer portal and have some questions on the roster -- including immense turnover at both receiver and in the defensive secondary -- that might have them losing some tough games against other premier SEC programs. Ten wins is still more than enough to make a 12-team playoff field, and the Crimson Tide certainly have the capability for more, especially with DeBoer's track record. Pick: Over 9.5 (+112)
Arkansas
Over/under 4.5
Wins: Arkansas Pine Bluff, UAB, at Mississippi State, Louisiana Tech
Losses: at Oklahoma State, at Auburn, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, at Missouri
Analaysis: This feels like a pivotal year for Sam Pittman after 2023's shocking downturn. The Razorbacks made wholesale changes in the offseason, highlighted by the return of ex-coach Bobby Petrino in the offensive coordinator role. He'll have a new quarterback to work with after KJ Jefferson hit the transfer portal. Top running back Raheim Sanders departed as well as the offense faces a major overhaul. It just doesn't feel like Arkansas has the wheels to hold up against a tough schedule. That early season road game against Oklahoma State will set the tone. Pick: Under 4.5 (-114)
Auburn
Over/under 7.5
Wins: Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico, Arkansas, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, ULM, Texas A&M
Losses: Oklahoma, at Georgia, at Missouri, at Alabama
Analysis: Hugh Freeze has put in a lot of work upgrading Auburn's talent level given the situation he inherited. The Tigers have specifically flipped both lines of scrimmage and the skill talent around quarterback Payton Thorne. While Thorne himself may be a limiting factor after a lackluster debut with the Tigers in 2023, Auburn seems restocked enough to comfortably make a bowl against a manageable schedule. Pick: Over 7.5 (+124)
Florida
Over/under 4.5
Wins: Samford, at Mississippi State, UCF, Kentucky
Losses: Miami, Texas A&M, at Tennessee, Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, at Florida State
Analysis: Poor Gators, and poor Billy Napier. This schedule isn't doing anybody in Gainesville any favors. Florida could be a lot better than it was last year, and I personally think it will be ... yet still finish with a worse record. Miami and Texas A&M are two early winnable games that could change the narrative around this team, but the Hurricanes have the better quarterback in Cameron Ward and Mike Elko will be hungry to make his own impression with the Aggies. Maybe Napier can sell his recruiting chops and the difficulty of this schedule to buy another year, but it's going to be a struggle. Pick: Under 4.5 (+122)
Georgia
Over/under 10.5
Wins: Clemson, Tennessee Tech, at Kentucky, at Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, at Texas, Florida, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech
Losses: None
Analysis: I've made it a policy to not project Georgia losses until Georgia actually loses. While some might think that's too reserved, Kirby Smart has earned the same benefit of the doubt as former boss Nick Saban. The Bulldogs are way too loaded and too well-coached to fathom anything less than a perfect regular season. That road game at Texas will be well worth watching, and Alabama can always give anyone trouble, but the Bulldogs are going to march on to another spot in the playoff and the sun is still going to rise tomorrow morning. Pick: Over 10.5 (-122)
Kentucky
Over/under 6.5
Wins: Southern Miss, South Carolina, Ohio, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Louisville
Losses: Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Florida, Auburn, at Tennessee, at Texas
Analysis: Mark Stoops has entered a comfortable groove at Kentucky. The Wildcats will always make a bowl and will, on occasion, far surpass that six-win cutoff line, though this year isn't shaping up to be one of those standouts. Kentucky's offense is hitching its wagon to a completely unproven transfer in ex-Georgia QB Brock Vandagriff and a brand new coordinator in Bush Hamdan after Liam Coen bolted for the NFL. The skill players are there for Vandagriff to settle in well, and the defense has some impressive pieces, but it's going to be difficult for Kentucky to rise in an even more loaded SEC. Pick: Under 6.5 (-105)
LSU
Over/under 9.5
Wins: USC, Nicholls, at South Carolina, UCLA, South Alabama, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M, at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
Losses: Ole Miss, Alabama
Analysis: LSU's nonconference schedule is incredibly intriguing. The Tigers play both Los Angeles-based Big Ten teams and yet don't have to travel to California for either game. They have seven home games, and their four true road contests are against SEC teams that went a combined 11-21 in conference play last season. The Tigers even get Alabama at home. A 10-win regular season would be progress for Brian Kelly, though LSU's CFP fate may be out of their hands in that event. Pick: Over 9.5 (+130)
Mississippi State
Over/under 4.5
Wins: Eastern Kentucky, at Arizona State, Toledo, UMass
Losses: Florida, at Texas, at Georgia, Texas A&M, Arkansas, at Tennessee, Missouri, at Ole Miss
Analysis: This is a really tough gig for a first-year head coach, especially one with absolutely no experience leading a program at the collegiate level. Mississippi State fired former boss Zach Arnett, who took over after Mike Leach's untimely death, before he could make it a full season. His replacement, Jeff Lebby, had to hit the transfer portal relentlessly from the moment he was hired given the attrition Mississippi State has faced this offseason. The Bulldogs are in reset and rebuild mode, so it's hard to expect much from them in Lebby's Year 1. Pick: Under 4.5 (-178)
Missouri
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, Vanderbilt, at UMass, Auburn, Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas
Losses: at Texas A&M, at Alabama
Analysis: Missouri certainly has the pieces in place to carry the momentum from a breakout 2023. The Tigers would love to capitalize off one more year of Brady Cook and Luther Burden as those two are certainly headed off to the NFL -- potentially as first-round picks -- next spring. The defense has to replace five 2024 NFL Draft picks and coordinator Blake Baker, who left for LSU, but Eli Drinkwitz and Co. have done a great job recruiting both via high school and the portal. Players like five-star freshman defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri should have an immediate impact while raising the skill ceiling. It helps Mizzou that the schedule is relatively light, including a closing stretch of three straight teams fresh off of losing records. Pick: Over 9.5 (+146)
Oklahoma
Over/under 7.5
Wins: Temple, Houston, Tulane, Tennessee, at Auburn, South Carolina, Maine
Losses: Texas, at Ole Miss, at Missouri, Alabama, at LSU
Analysis: There is some cause for concern in Oklahoma's first year as an SEC program. The Sooners have to replace all five offensive linemen with starting experience and will be breaking in a brand new starting quarterback (former five-star Jackson Arnold) behind the line of scrimmage. There's hope that OL coach Bill Bedenbaugh, who has as proven a track record as anyone in the country, can get his unit up to muster. Otherwise, the Sooners have a solid RB room, tremendous wide receiver talent and probably the best defense Norman, Oklahoma, has seen in quite some time. Oklahoma has the upside to prove Vegas wrong, though I have them falling just under the total in light of a tough SEC slate. Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Ole Miss
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Furman, Middle Tennessee State, at Wake Forest, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, at South Carolina, at LSU, Oklahoma, at Arkansas, at Florida, Mississippi State
Losses: Georgia
Analysis: Is this the year that Ole Miss finally takes that big leap under Lane Kiffin? For all the success the Rebels have had in recent years, big games against the likes of Alabama and Georgia have been a consistent thorn in the side of further progress. Well, the Crimson Tide are off the docket in 2024. While Georgia's imposing presence remains, the Rebels should cruise through an easy nonconference slate into SEC play where they won't often be underdogs. That recent success and a sterling effort in the transfer portal should translate into a College Football Playoff berth with few speed bumps on the way. Pick: Over 9.5 (-124)
South Carolina
Over/under 5.5
Wins: Old Dominion, Akron, at Vanderbilt, Wofford
Losses: at Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, at Clemson
Analysis: South Carolina is an interesting study. The Gamecocks have proven to be more than capable of upsetting top-tier teams. Look no further than a couple of years ago when Shane Beamer's squad downed No. 5 Tennessee and No. 8 Clemson in consecutive weeks to close the year. So, it wouldn't be surprising to see them outperform preseason projections. But that potential also made 2023 an even more bigger disappointment, and I'm not sure the Gamecocks did enough this offseason to swing things back around. Especially with an inexperienced LaNorris Sellers expected to start at quarterback and very significant questions about who's going to actually catch his passes. Pick: Under 5.5 (-114)
Tennessee
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State, at Arkansas, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP, at Vanderbilt
Losses: at Oklahoma, at Georgia
Analysis: Tennessee is flying under the radar a bit as a legitimate College Football Playoff competitor given the opportunities that come with an expanded field. That neutral-site game against NC State will be a tough early test, and opening SEC play on the road against Oklahoma is difficult considering the environment and the fact that the Volunteers really struggle on the road under Josh Heupel. Georgia is also an automatic loss for just about every team in the nation. But, other than that, Tennessee gets toss-up games against the likes of Florida and Alabama at home and doesn't draw any other teams that look too intimidating at this point. Pick: Over 9.5 (+130)
Texas
Over/under 10.5
Wins: Colorado State, at Michigan, UTSA, ULM, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, at Vanderbilt, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Texas A&M
Losses: Georgia
Analysis: Texas should acclimate very well to its new conference. The Longhorns have acquired talent at a level befitting an SEC team and bring back some key figures from that 2023 College Football Playoff team, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers. Michigan is an early hurdle, but it will be the second game of the year for a Wolverines squad that has to replace coach Jim Harbaugh and 18 players with starting experience. Again, Georgia stands out, but there is upset potential since the Longhorns get that game at home. Pick: Over 10.5 (+124)
Texas A&M
Over/under 8.5
Wins: McNeese, at Florida, Bowling Green, Arkansas, Missouri, at Mississippi State, at South Carolina, New Mexico State,
Losses: Notre Dame, LSU, at Auburn, Texas
Analysis: That projected total seems a bit steep given that new coach Mike Elko's predecessor never exceeded eight regular-season wins in his six years at the helm. Anything close to that 8.5 mark will be a success for Elko in light of the well-publicized nature of Texas A&M's separation from Jimbo Fisher and the ensuing talent exodus that followed. The Aggies seem to be a bit better off in the personnel department than most think, though, and Elko is no stranger to quick turnarounds. He won nine games in his first year at Duke, the Blue Devils' highest win total since 2014. Going with the under here with the caveat that Texas A&M will get very close, and it's a good thing regardless. Pick: Under 8.5 (-106)
Vanderbilt
Over/under 2.5
Wins: Alcorn State, at Georgia State, Ball State
Losses: Virginia Tech, at Missouri, Alabama, at Kentucky, Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU, Tennessee
Analysis: Georgia State is the swing game that could make the difference this year. The Panthers have gone to a bowl game in three of the last four years and notoriously upset Tennessee to open the 2019 season. Maybe Clark Lea can rally the troops -- he did beat Kentucky and Florida in 2022 -- and pull off an upset or two, but it might take a minor miracle to get this team near bowl eligibility. Pick: Over 2.5 (-184)
