The official end of the first half of the season won't come for another few weeks when the All-Star break hits, but the official end of the first half of the season is never actually the halfway point of the season.
We're actually already past that, though the beginning of July is a nice substitute for it, splitting the season up into three-month chunks. And, with just three games on Monday's schedule, it feels like a good time to take a little pause, reflect on the season that has come before us, and to try to project what's going to happen in the second half.
Scott White did just that Tuesday, publishing his "Redrafting the first two rounds for the second half" piece, and I'm going to follow in his lead with today's newsletter. You should head here to see where Scott and I disagree, and Scott has some numbers you need to know about the state of offense around MLB so far this season, too. There's obviously plenty of overlap in our rankings here, but we disagree on plenty, too, and that's going to make for some fun discussions when we do this exercise in a few weeks during the All-Star break for the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast.
We've also got our usual breakdowns of what action and news there was around the league on Monday, though with just three games, it admittedly isn't much. So, we'll start with my thoughts on who the first 24 players picked would be if we were re-drafting for the second half of the season:
Re-drafting the first two rounds
Once again, you can see who Scott is drafting in the first two rounds here, and I'll just note that there is very little disagreement in our first round, at least. Here's what my list looks like:
1. Aaron Judge, RF, NYY – When other players have a 1.100-plus OPS for half a season, it's pretty easy to write it off as unsustainable. In Judge's case, he's mostly just replicating 2022. We know this can be real for him.
2. Shohei Ohtani, DH, LAD – Ohtani is pretty much just replicating last season, except in a much better lineup and with more steals. It's fun to see what he can do when only focusing on hitting.
3. Bobby Witt, SS, KC – Witt has taken another step forward to emerge as a legitimate five-category threat – and I expect even more from him in the power department moving forward, seeing as he's underperforming his xSLG by more than 50 points.
4. Juan Soto, LF, NYY – Soto has been everything we hoped for and more in New York, and might be the AL MVP frontrunner if not for the guy hitting behind him.
5. Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE – Ramirez never lights up the Statcast page the way the guys ahead of him will, and it's not as clear how much of his bounceback from last season is "real." On the other hand, betting against him has never exactly been a smart move.
6. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, BAL – I think you can make a compelling case for Henderson as high as No. 2, and I wouldn't really argue. He doesn't have Ramirez's track record, which is the main thing dropping him to sixth.
7. Elly De La Cruz, SS, CIN – When things are going well, De La Cruz is arguably the most valuable player in categories leagues, but there's enough volatility here that I'm willing to drop him at the bottom end of the first tier of elite players here.
8. Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD – There's been a dip in Freeman's power and speed production this season, and it's matched by a dip in the underlying production. But he got hot in June, so I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here.
9. Yordan Alvarez, DH, HOU – After a couple of years of putting up Judge-esque underlying metrics, Alvarez has taken a bit of a step back this season. Like Freeman, though, he also just put up a massive June (1.139 OPS), so I'm expecting his best production to come in the second half.
10. Kyle Tucker, RF, HOU – Before the shin injury that currently has him on the IL, we were seeing the best version of Tucker ever. I expect some regression when he's healthy, but it might just be a peak season from a 27-year-old.
11. Bryce Harper, DH, PHI – Harper has bounced right back after an underwhelming return from Tommy John surgery last season, and he should be back very soon from his hamstring injury. I do wonder if that might not hold back his already underwhelming steals totals, though.
12. Julio Rodriguez, CF, SEA – I went in-depth on what's gone wrong for Julio Rodriguez so far this season here, and it's decidedly not just all bad luck. Pitchers are attacking him inside and he hasn't figured out how to adjust and make them pay. I have faith he'll get there, obviously, but he's by far the biggest risk here.
13. Zack Wheeler, SP, PHI – Scott prefers Tarik Skubal as the No. 1 pitcher, and I can't argue that Skubal is probably the better pitcher right now. But Wheeler is the best combination of upside and projectability at the position.
14. Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS – I usually don't want to take a non-steals threat this early, but Devers is on pace for the best numbers of his excellent career in a down offensive year overall, and little about it looks flukey.
15. Tarik Skubal, SP, DET – Over the past calendar year, here's where Skubal ranks among all qualifiers: First in ERA; first in WHIP; tied for first in wins; tied for sixth in strikeouts. He doesn't quite have the elite volume or track record, but he might be the best pitcher in baseball right now.
16. Corbin Burnes, SP, BAL – Burnes no longer ranks among the tippy-top, most-elite strikeout pitchers in baseball, it's true. But hes' on arguably the best team in baseball, in a great home park, and is about as safe a pick for wins and ratios as any pitcher.
17. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU – RBI is the only category where Altuve isn't a standout, and that's solely because of where he hits in the lineup. This is now three straight seasons with a .300-plus average after an early-2020s dip.
18. Tyler Glasnow, SP, LAD – You can make a case for Glasnow as the best pitcher in Fantasy, and it's only his extensive injury track record that holds him back here.
19. Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM – It's like Fantasy players forget who Francisco Lindor is every April when he inevitably gets off to a slow start. He's going to get his near 30 homers and 30 steals before it's all said and done, and then you'll all freak out again next April, probably.
20. C.J. Abrams, SS, WAS – If Abrams has been disappointing as a base stealer, it's probably because he's already nearly to last season's power production (38 extra-base hits, compared to 52 all last season). His batting average is probably more volatile than any other player in this range, but Abrams looks like a five-category superstar right now.
21. Christian Yelich, LF, MIL – How sustainable is the .323 average and 50-steal (!!!) pace for Yelich? That's the main question to answer here, but given how awful the outfield is, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here.
22. Corey Seager, SS, TEX – Seager hasn't quite been as good as last season, and there have been a few annoying injuries along the way. But I definitely believe his best 2024 performance is yet to come.
23. Marcus Semien, 2B, TEX – Ditto for his teammate, who is actually underperforming his expected stats for the first time ever in the Statcast era. The Rangers offense is going to have a big second half, and Semien has earned the benefit of the doubt.
24. Mookie Betts, OF, Dodgers – Betts' underlying metrics line up with his disappointing power this season, and now he's working his way back from a fractured wrist, with a cloudy timetable.
