Picking in the back half of the first round of a Fantasy football draft, you're always going to be subject to what the managers ahead of you do. And if I had the eighth spot, I would be crowing in this article about getting the steal of the year by landing Justin Jefferson, my WR3, that far down a half-PPR mock draft. But Dave gets the glory, and instead I had to make a tough call at No. 9: running back or receiver?
The ninth slot is such a tough one in 2024; you're just outside getting a top-tier RB or WR, as I have A.J. Brown slightly behind the top five at the position. And then you're also not guaranteed a Tier 2 player on the comeback in Round 2. So you have to make a decision: do I feel better with my RB4 and then a Tier 3 receiver, or with Brown and a Tier 3 RB?
In this draft I chose the RB/WR route, taking Jahmyr Gibbs as someone I believe got better as the season went along and may be in line for an increased workload this year. And then when the next four receivers went off the board as expected before my next pick, I was left taking Davante Adams as my WR1. The combination is fine, and I think I'm in a better spot than if I started Brown-Travis Etienne, but it's still hard to look at the bright side when I was so close to getting Jefferson and then missed out on Puka Nacua and Marvin Harrison Jr. in Round 2.
I tried to make up for being behind the 8 ball in the first two rounds by taking the top tight end on the board when Sam LaPorta made it to me in Round 3. Getting an edge at tight end is one way I'll be able to make up ground when my first two picks are more good than great. I decided to prioritize WR from there, landing DJ Moore and Zay Flowers with my next two picks to give me a quality trio to lean on. I don't think it worked out too poorly as D'Andre Swift is an underrated back, even if he's stretched as an RB2, and I love the potential of Tyjae Spears as my RB3.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award 0.5 points for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 9 overall:
1.09 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
2.04 Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
3.09 Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions
4.04 DJ Moore, WR, Bears
5.09 Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
6.04 D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
7.09 Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
8.04 Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans
9.09 Josh Palmer, WR, Chargers
10.04 Gus Edwards, RB, Chargers
11.09 Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers
12.04 Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
13.09 Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns
14.04 Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
After my Spears pick, a pretty clear trend emerges, with Chargers players coming off the board with my next four picks. This is somewhat by design; I had really hoped to get Khalil Shakir in the ninth round but he was scooped up one pick ahead of me, and Josh Palmer was next on my list. In Round 10, I think Gus Edwards is a great value as I trust him more than J.K. Dobbins coming off another major injury, and the offense Edwards is in could lead to him delivering incredible value from this late in the draft.
The next two picks were about backing up those two Chargers picks. Since I'm down on Dobbins, if anyone is going to knock Edwards out of being a quality Fantasy back, it's probably going to be the rookie Kimani Vidal. Having both ensures I have a usable flex back with my combination of RB4 and RB5. Johnston was a first-round pick a year ago and could usurp Palmer's projected role in the offense, so having both makes sure there's a good WR4 or better between the two. And since I went heavy on Chargers, why not round the draft out by taking their QB just in case this unit surprises everyone this year?
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Even though I wasn't thrilled about my first two picks, I think it all worked out well in the end. I think my Chargers stacking late will prove to be a wise move that allows two quality Fantasy pieces to emerge, and the others I can throw to the waiver wire as I chase the next big thing. That depth combined with quality quarterback and tight end starters could help push this team over the edge.
Spears looked like he was on a rocketship up Fantasy analyst rankings over the summer based on my exposure to mock drafts, and I fully expected he'd be out of Round 8 by this point. But the expected timeshare in Tennessee seems to have cooled his stock a bit. That's fine with me; I think he has much more upside than Pollard, especially in any format that awards points for receptions, and I could see him being the 1A to Pollard's 1B rather than vice versa, which seems to be what the consensus is expecting. On a developing offense with a young QB at the helm, that could lead to a lot of work for Spears, who could become a locked-in RB2 and shift D'Andre Swift to the flex where I'd be more comfortable leaning on him.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Gibbs' upside this year. But what if that upside doesn't come to pass and he doesn't have the consistency you expect from a Round 1 pick? That would be devastating for this team considering I had a big fork in the road in Round 1 and went this way instead of taking A.J. Brown and setting up my WR corps in a much better spot. With Brown and a weaker RB1, I probably go Kenneth Walker over DJ Moore in Round 4, then take Terry McLaurin in Round 6 instead of D'Andre Swift. Which trio is better? I'm worried it's not the one I have.
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Of course, Adams could shut my worries down by playing like the WR1 he has been for most of his career. The problem is that time only moves in one direction, and Adams is coming off his lowest yards per game number since 2017 thanks largely to his lowest yards per target number since 2015. If Aidan O'Connell remains the QB, can he support a WR1 season from Adams? I'm not confident he can. I'd feel much better if Gardner Minshew wins the job as Michael Pittman just set career highs in yards and receptions with Minshew as his QB most of the year. The Raiders QB battle is going to have a big impact on how the season goes for this team, words that won't make me sleep easy at night.
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