The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are presently tied atop the American League East standings with, tidily enough, identical 67-46 records. Given that the third-place Boston Red Sox are 6 1/2 back of this tandem, the division crown will almost certainly go to the Yanks or the O's.
Those tight-as-can-be margins duly noted, let's also remind ourselves that under the current format the stakes are high for best of division winners. That's because the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in each league – i.e., the teams with the top two records among the three division winners in a given league – get first-round byes. In the AL this season, that's almost certainly going to be the AL East winner and the AL Central winner. In other words, the Yankees and Orioles right now are not only jousting for AL East harrumphing rights but also the privilege of not having to play in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Given what is to be gained and lost in the AL East race and given that first-place tie, it's worth exploring every possible x-factor in this race. That brings us to the differences – crucial differences, possibly – in the Yankees' and Orioles' remaining strength of schedule. Let's explore that now.
Going into Monday's slate, the Orioles and Yankees each have 49 games remaining, and those 49 games are spread across 16 series with seven off days for each team mixed in. Now for the specifics of each team's schedule across the remainder of the 2024 regular season (each series is listed in sequential order with the number of games in parentheses):
Yankees' remaining schedule | Orioles' remaining schedule |
LAA (3) | @TOR (3) |
TEX (3) | @TB (3) |
@CHW (3) | WAS (2) |
@DET (3) | BOS (4) |
CLE (3) | @NYM (3) |
COL (3) | HOU (4) |
@WAS (3) | @LAD (3) |
STL (3) | @COL (3) |
@TEX (3) | CHW (3) |
@CHC (3) | TB (3) |
KC (3) | @BOS (3) |
BOS (4) | @DET (3) |
@SEA (3) | SF (3) |
@OAK (3) | DET (3) |
BAL (3) | @NYY (3) |
PIT (3) | @MIN (3) |
Now for some observations on these remaining dockets.
- The Orioles' remaining opponents have an average 2024 winning percentage of .490 as things stand today, which ranks 23rd in MLB when sorted from toughest to weakest.
- The Yankees' remaining opponents have an average 2024 winning percentage of .477, which ranks 27th in MLB. Just the Angels, A's, and Tigers have easier remaining schedules as measured by opponents' average winning percentage.
- Right away, we get a crucial stretch. After Monday's off day for each team, the Yankees begin a span of schedule that will see them play 18 of 21 games against teams with losing records. Nine of those games come against the Angels, White Sox, and Rockies – three of the worst teams in baseball.
- The Orioles, in contrast, will face 17 winning teams in 22 games across roughly the same period.
- In all, the Yankees have 27 games left against teams with losing records and nine against teams presently in playoff position.
- The Orioles have 20 games remaining against below-.500 teams and, likewise, nine against teams in playoff position.
- Over the rest of the regular season, the Yankees will play 28 of 49 games at home. The Orioles, meanwhile, will play 22 of 59 games at home. (Yes, both teams have been better away from home this season, but that's likely just noise across a limited sample – the safe assumption remains that playing at home confers a modest advantage, as plainly demonstrated across years and decades.)
- As you can see above, the Yankees and Orioles meet head-to-head just once more during the regular season. That three-game set that starts Sept. 24 and could play a determining role in the division race will go down in the Bronx.
The differences aren't necessarily stark, but the reality is that the Yankees play an easier schedule the rest of the way in terms of opponent quality and have a larger portion of those 49 remaining games at home. That's a definite edge, at least theoretically.
In a race that's been as hotly fought as this one and figures to culminate in a photo finish or thereabouts, every leverage point, no matter how seemingly modest, is worth factoring. That's definitely the case in the AL East race, where the Yankees' more accommodating schedule ahead gives them at least a bit of an advantage over the Orioles.
