The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is winding down, but first the competition heads to Nashville Superspeedway for the 2024 Ally 400 on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Ross Chastain is the defending champion at Music City, and he will be desperate to repeat that success since he is still searching for his first win of the season. Chastain and Martin Truex Jr. are the only drivers in the top 10 of the NASCAR Cup Series standings without a victory, so the competition will be fierce at the 2024 Ally 400 this weekend.
Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite on the NASCAR odds board, followed by Denny Hamlin at 11-2 and Truex at 7-1. Meanwhile, Chastain is listed at 15-2 to win the 2024 Ally 400. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Ally 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Ally 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard.
Top 2024 Ally 400 predictions
For the 2024 Ally 400, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Nashville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The two-time Cup Series champion has placed in the top 10 twice in his last three starts at Nashville Superspeedway, plus he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2009. His prior success in Music City could be just what Logano needs to turn his season around.
Logano appears to be rounding into form after a rough start to his season, winning the All-Star Race back in May. He also finished second at Richmond and fifth at Gateway, but he's still looking for his first victory of the season. If Logano is really turning his season around, he's a good longshot to back at a track where he has had a lot of success.
Another massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the Vegas favorites at 9-1, fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Ally 400 starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion scored his first victory of the season with a dominant run in Iowa two weeks ago, leading 201 laps before taking the checkered flag.
However, he followed that up with a disappointing 25th-place finish despite qualifying second in New Hampshire last week. He's now eighth in the NASCAR standings and has finished 20th or worse in six of his last 10 starts this season. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Nashville picks
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2024 Ally 400 odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the USA Ally 400 2024 at Nashville, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 Ally 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Nashville picks at SportsLine.
Kyle Larson 9-2
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Ross Chastain 15-2
Christopher Bell 8-1
Chase Elliott 17-2
Ryan Blaney 9-1
William Byron 10-1
Tyler Reddick 10-1
Joey Logano 18-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Ty Gibbs 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Kyle Busch 40-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Josh Berry 50-1
Bubba Wallace 50-1
Corey Heim 60-1
Noah Gragson 75-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Michael McDowell 125-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Todd Gilliland 300-1
Carson Hocevar 300-1
AJ Allmendinger 300-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Austin Dillon 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Zane Smith 1500-1
Harrison Burton 1500-1
Riley Herbst 1500-1
Chad Finchum 5000-1
Daniel Hemric 5000-1
