The betting markets in the NBA Draft space over the last few years have swung wildly in the closing days of each cycle. In 2022, Jabari Smith Jr. was favored to go No. 1 before Paolo Banchero was eventually selected there. In 2023, Scoot Henderson was believed to be the frontrunner to go No. 2, only for Charlotte to swoop in and snag Brandon Miller. So what type of fireworks will 2024 provide?
Markets have shifted ever so slightly in recent days, from which there is something to glean about how oddsmakers see the top of the draft playing out, which could once again spell last-minute drama. If you feel like testing your luck in the market, or just like to see how things shift, below is a look at the current odds for the No. 1 pick -- along with a few prop bets of interest.
Odds below are subject to change.
Odds to go No. 1 in 2024 NBA Draft
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zaccharie Risacher | -230 |
| Donovan Clingan | +220 |
| Alex Sarr | +500 |
| Stephon Castle | +4000 |
| Reed Sheppard | +6000 |
Donovan Clingan draft position prop
- Over 3.5 (-125)
- Under 3.5 (-105)
Of the top prospects in this year's class, Clingan has among the wider range of outcomes. He's reportedly in play for the Hawks at No. 1, but should Atlanta go with Risacher, it seems likely Alex Sarr and Reed Sheppard are next off the board to Washington and Houston, respectively. This line reflects the possibility of him going No. 1 but also the possibility of him falling out of the top three, since both lines are juiced at minus money. I'd lean the over here with the idea that he slips past three, but there remains a real chance he is first off the board Wednesday.
Bronny James draft position prop
- Over 45.5 (-140)
- Under 45.5 (+110)
The Lakers are favored to be the destination spot for Bronny James, LeBron's son, at +100 ahead of Phoenix (+700), Toronto (+900), Minnesota (+900) and Dallas (+900). That's a pretty significant gap favoring L.A. If you buy the notion that the Lakers will indeed draft him, then the over at -140 makes the most sense. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely, the team selects him with pick No. 17, and their next pick is all the way down at No. 55. There's always the chance, of course, that the Lakers move up ahead of their second-round pick to select him, or that another team simply drafts him before this spot, but I'm skeptical that will be the case.
Top 3 exact order
- Risacher-Sarr-Sheppard (-140)
- Clingan-Sarr-Sheppard (+300)
- Risacher-Sarr-Clingan (+450)
- Sarr-Risacher-Sheppard (+1000)
- Clingan-Sarr-Risacher (+1000)
Here's where things get fun. If you buy the belief that Clingan is indeed in the mix as the No. 1 pick, then you can get some pretty good odds on some iteration of him going No. 1 and betting on the top three exact order. If that were to happen, it could mean Risacher falls to No. 2 and Sarr drops to the Rockets at No. 3, or that Sarr goes No. 2 and Risacher goes No. 3, or that one of Sarr or Risacher goes No. 2 and Sheppard goes No. 3....
There were plus-odds to be had here earlier this week for Risacher-Sarr-Sheppard at +350, but that line has shifted to -140 so it seems the market is moving quickly. There's risk assuming that nothing will change or that no trades will happen, but it seems plausible and that's one way you could play it to get good odds.
