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Though the Boston Celtics are nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win the title over the Dallas Mavericks, this feels like a much closer series than that. Maybe the books are right. Maybe Boston has been the best team all season and will validate that status with authority over the next few weeks. Personally, I don't think it will play that way. 

I think the Mavericks win in seven, but in either case, whether Dallas or Boston ultimately hoists the Larry O'Brien Trophy, I expect the series to be extremely close. One of my bold predictions, in fact, is that at least six of these games will meet the "clutch" standard, meaning they will be within five points at some point within the final five minutes. 

Which is to say, this series will be decided in closing time. It is through this prism that I'm leaning Dallas courtesy of the late-game magic of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who are -- are you ready for this? -- a combined 7 for 9 in their postseason careers (Luka 4 for 5, Kyrie 3 for 4) on game-tying/go-ahead shots inside the final minute. 

This includes Irving's Game 7 magic in the 2016 Finals, which might very well go down as the biggest shot in history.

Trim the clock down to the final 24 seconds to either tie or take the lead, and these two literally haven't missed. Irving has taken just one of these shots in his playoff career, finishing a layup to tie the game vs. Boston with 11 seconds to play in Game 3 of the 2017 Eastern Conference finals. 

Doncic, meanwhile, has taken three of these shots over the course of his young career, and he's drained every one of them. That ties him for the most makes on such shots without a miss by any player in the last 25 years (Trae Young is also 3 for 3). His library includes the first-round buzzer beater to stun the Clippers in the 2020 bubble ...

And his most recent game-winner over Rudy Gobert in Game 2 of this year's Western Conference finals ...

These are career shots, so disregard what might look like a small sample size. Shots like this -- even the opportunities, let alone the actual makes -- don't come along often, and the fact that Luka and Kyrie are 7 for 9 inside the final minute on do-or-die looks is preposterous. 

Stretch it out to game-tying/go-ahead shots inside the final two minutes of a playoff game, and Luka's 58% clip (14 for 24), including 50% (6 for 12) on 3s, blows every active player who has taken at least 20 of these shots out of the water. 

As for Irving, well, let's forget the numbers for a second. Earlier this year, Andre Iguodala, one of the greatest perimeter defenders ever, was asked who he fears the most at the end of a game. He didn't hesitate to say Kyrie, adding that it's "not even close."

Indeed, Luka and Kyrie's collective clutch gene is undisputed, but it is not, interestingly enough, entirely unrivaled when it comes to Boston's own superstar duo. You wouldn't think that was the case with the manner in which Jayson Tatum, especially, and Jaylen Brown get criticized for their late-game execution, but just look at the numbers for game-tying/go-ahead shots. 

PLAYOFFS ONLY

Final 24 seconds

Final minute

Luka Doncic

100% (3 for 3)

80% (4 for 5)

Kyrie Irving

100% (1 for 1)

75% (3 for 4)

Jaylen Brown

75% (3 for 4)

50% (3 for 6)

Jayson Tatum

40% (2 for 5)

46% (5 for 11)

As you can see, Tatum has actually made more game-tying/go-ahead shots in the playoffs inside the final minute than any of these guys. He actually finished one over Irving to win Game 1 of the Celtics-Nets 2022 first-round series.

Factoring in his registering more than twice the volume of Doncic or Irving, for Tatum to make nearly half of his shots in these postseason situations is quite impressive, and Brown, who sunk the game-tying corner 3 to send Game 1 of this year's conference finals to overtime, is right there with everyone else.

In fact, when you expand the criteria to both regular season and playoffs, it's Brown who comes out on top from a percentage standpoint, and all four are in the same ballpark. 

Game-tying/go-ahead shots

Final 24 seconds

Final minute

Luka Doncic

37% (15 for 41)

40% (23 for 58)

Kyrie Irving

37% (22 for 59)

40% (40 for 101)

Jaylen Brown

41% (12 for 29)

43% (19 for 44)

Jayson Tatum

35% (17 for 49)

39% (29 for 75)

Now let's expand the criteria to all "clutch" shots, meaning when a game is within five points with five or fewer minutes to play. Again, the Boston boys are right there with the Dallas duo. 

Career Clutch FG%

Playoffs

Playoffs + Regular Season

Luka Doncic 

39%

44%

Kyrie Irving

35%

44%

Jaylen Brown

35%

43%

Jayson Tatum

40%

43%

For me, this feels like a series in which possibly every game could come down to clutch time. If that's the case, which star duo are you taking to close? I'm taking Luka and Kyrie, which is why I have the Mavs in seven. It's more than the numbers, which actually look pretty ordinary so far in these playoffs (Luka 36%, Kyrie 42% on clutch shots); these two guys' veins run ice cold. I don't need a spreadsheet to confirm that. 

But as you can see, anyone painting Tatum and Brown as something other than a pretty damn clutch in their own right is deceiving you, whether they know it or not.