Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. (FieldTurf, retractable roof)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Dolphins by 2.5
Records: Colts (Overall: 4-3, AFC South: 1-1); Dolphins (Overall: 4-3, AFC East: 1-1)
Past results: Two most recent meetings: Sept. 21, 2009: Colts 27, Dolphins 23; Dec. 31, 2006: Colts 27, Dolphins 22.. Series record: Dolphins lead, 46-24.
What matters: Entering the season, the Colts and Dolphins were slated to be in rebuilding mode. Both had first-year coaches and would be starting over with rookie quarterbacks. After eight weeks, surprisingly, both are in the playoff hunt at 4-3. The teams essentially are the same -- but totally different. Indianapolis is among league leaders in passing yards and pass defense, while Miami boasts one of the NFL's best rushing attacks and run defenses. Sunday will come down to which team can impose its will more effectively.
Who matters: RBs Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. The Colts are starting to shore up their run defense after a couple of rough outings against the Jaguars and Jets. The improvement coincided with Indy getting healthy, even though the Colts aren't quite back at full strength. With uncertainty surrounding the status of Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the game could come down to how effective Thomas and Bush can be. If the Colts defense can shut down the run game and force Tannehill or Matt Moore to beat them through the air, Indianapolis should have a pretty good shot in this one.
Key matchups: WRs Davone Bess and Brian Hartline vs. Colts' secondary. Though the Dolphins have a stellar rushing attack, the Colts will be down a starting cornerback with former Dolphin Vontae Davis sidelined with a sprained knee. His replacement, Cassius Vaughn, has been shaky this season, at best. Bess and Hartline have big play ability, so the Indy secondary has to guard against being sucked in too much by the run. DE Cameron Wake vs. Colts' offensive line. Last week's AFC defensive player of the week, Wake has been a chore for opposing lines. He now has 7.5 sacks, and the Colts O-line hasn't been great at protecting Luck, allowing 18 sacks on the year.
Injuries of note: Of course the aforementioned Davis, who won't get a chance to go against the team that gave up on him. Davis was largely considered a disappointment in his three years with Miami. RB Donald Brown (knee) also is questionable for Indy after missing Thursday's practice. The Colts will also be without starting tight end Coby Fleener, who has a shoulder injury. OLB Robert Mathis (knee) was slated to return this week, but there is some uncertainty now since he, too, did not practice Thursday. However, Mathis and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky said the Colts sack leader (5) will go Sunday.
Inside stuff: With Fleener sidelined, fellow rookie tight end Dwayne Allen will likely have his shot at making more plays down the field. Allen is a big body (6-3, 255) but he has shown some elusiveness for a player his size. The recently-acquire Weslye Saunders will fill Allen's role in double TE sets.
Connections: Davis, of course, though he will not play. Dolphins tight end Dominique Jones was waived by the Colts last month.
Stat you should know: The Colts are 4-1 when they do not allow an opposing rusher to surpass 100 yards. They've been successful in doing so the last two games, against the Browns and Titans.
Looking ahead: Indy has a quick turnaround, as the Colts will travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars on Thursday night before facing Patriots in Foxborough in Week 11.
Prediction: Colts 21, Dolphins 10
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.
