Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Ma. (outdoors, grass)
When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Patriots by 9
Forecast: Temperatures starting in the upper 40s; sunny.
Records: Colts (Overall: 6-3, AFC South: 2-1); Patriots (Overall: 6-3, 3-0 AFC East)
Past results: Three most recent meetings -- Dec. 4, 2011: Patriots 31, Colts 24; Nov. 21, 2010: Patriots 31, Colts 28; Nov. 15, 2009: Colts 35, Patriots 34. Series record: Patriots lead series 46-29.
What matters: Some things need to be acknowledged: The Colts have won four straight games, and it would take an epic meltdown for them to miss the playoffs. No one thought that was possible at the beginning of the season. With that established, this is hardly a must-win for the Colts. However, a good showing against the league's best offense on the road would go a long way for Indy's confidence -- especially with a depleted defense.
Who matters: Tom Brady matters, of course. But, more importantly, CBs Darius Butler, Josh Gordy, and Cassius Vaughn matter. Vaughn and Butler will be starting in place of injured starters Vontae Davis (knee) and Jerraud Powers (toe), and they'll have their hands full with the Patriots. Brady is adept at finding a defense's weakness and exploiting it. The Colts -- despite Butler's big game last week -- have a pretty big weakness at corner.
Key matchups: Aside from the Indy secondary matching up with Pats' receivers, the New England secondary will have to find a way to Colts WR Reggie Wayne in check. No one has figured it out yet, especially with the way the Colts move him around the field. The Patriots added corner Aqib Talib to bolster their own secondary, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be when he first suits up this Sunday.
Injuries of note: Besides Davis and Powers -- both of whom have been ruled out -- running back Donald Brown (knee) and outside linebacker Robert Mathis (back) both missed practice Thursday. It remains to be seen if the measure was simply precautionary, but Mathis has been the only reliable Colt in terms of getting after the quarterback. Brown is replaceable with Vick Ballard, but his absence would affect the depth in the backfield.
Inside stuff: Look for Donnie Avery to have a good game. This has been a popular hunch for weeks, but he is now fully healthy and teams are taking notice of rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. With Wayne producing the way he is, Avery may be lost in coverage a few times.
Connections: Butler played two seasons with the Patriots, which may give him a slight edge with wide receiver Wes Welker. It could also cause the Pats to do some self-scouting in an effort to out-smart him. Kicker Adam Vinatieri also spent several years with New England, winning three Super Bowls.
Stat you should know: The Colts have just two takeaways -- both interceptions last week by Darius Butler -- in its last five games, and just six overall this season. The Patriots are the best team in the NFL in terms of protecting the ball, giving it up just six times this year. So don't expect New England to provide Indy with any handouts.
Record watch: If Luck throws for better than 300 yards Sunday, he'll be the first rookie in history to do so five times in his first season.
Looking ahead: The Colts will face Buffalo next week in Indy, before again hitting the road to face Detroit.
Prediction: New England 38, Indianapolis 21
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.
