Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. (natural grass, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Colts by 7
Forecast: Cloudy and cold. High in the low 30s.
Records: Colts (Overall: 9-5; AFC South: 3-2); Chiefs (Overall: 2-12; AFC West: 0-5)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 9, 2011: Chiefs 28, Colts 24; Oct. 10, 2010: Colts 19, Chiefs 9. Series record: Colts lead 13-8.
What matters: For the Chiefs, nothing. For the Colts, well, everything. A win Sunday and Indianapolis will clinch a wild card berth. Even with a loss the Colts could back into the playoffs, but it would certainly feel better getting a road win and earning the berth that way. Plus, a loss to the 2-12 Chiefs could do a number on the Indianapolis psyche, so, as with any game, winning Sunday is the most important thing.
Who matters: Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. The past month has been a bit of a challenge for Luck, and even though he is poised to set the rookie passing yards in a season record this week, he hasn't had a quarterback rating better than 100 since Week 9 against the Dolphins. Kansas City has one of the league's best pass defenses, so it will be an opportunity for Luck to face a tough defense on the road and, for the Colts' sake, hopefully perform well just a few weeks before the playoffs begin.
Key matchups: Jamaal Charles vs. Colts front seven. The Indianapolis defense got lit up last week by Texans running back Arian Foster, and, really, the only hope the Chiefs have is if Charles goes off. Dwayne Bowe vs. Colts secondary. In addition to Foster, Houston got a huge game from wide receiver Andre Johnson. To be sure, Bowe is no Johnson, but he is certainly capable of putting up video game numbers.
Injuries of note: Starting safety Tom Zbikowski (knee) and offensive tackle Winston Justice (bicep) were both limited Thursday, which at least gives some hope that they'll be able to play. Interim coach Bruce Arians announced early in the week that running back Delone Carter (ankle), center Samson Satele (ankle), and linebacker Kavell Conner (hamstring) are all out.
Inside stuff: Look out for Colts running back Vick Ballard. The rookie could be poised to have a big game after last week's performance at Houston, where he recorded his first 100+ yard rushing game. And with Carter out and confidence waning with backup Mewelde Moore, Ballard may get even more touches.
Connections: Arians coached in Kansas City for a few years, from 1989-92, so he's familiar with Arrowhead Stadium. On Wednesday, Arians said Arrowhead was the best outdoor stadium in the NFL.
Stat you should know: The Colts are just 3-4 on the road this season, with wins over the Titans, Jaguars, and Lions. Though that won't matter much this week, it will in the first round of the playoffs, when Indy will be on the road.
Record watch: Luck needs just 74 passing yards to break Cam Newton's rookie record of 4,051, and 19 completions to break Peyton Manning's rookie franchise record of 326.
Looking ahead: The Chiefs will mercifully close out the season at Denver, while the Colts will play Houston back in Indianapolis.
Prediction: Colts 33, Chiefs 14
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.
