The Cubs will try to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Giants in San Francisco Thursday afternoon. Even if they win and avoid the sweep, things are not going even remotely well for the ballclub. The latest blow came earlier Thursday when starting pitcher Javier Assad hit the injured list due to a forearm extensor strain.
Assad is the Cubs' leader in WAR this season at 2.2. The 26-year-old right-hander is 4-3 with a 3.04 ERA in 83 innings. He was among the ERA leaders for two months (2.27 ERA through May), but has regressed in June, going 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA this month.
This is where we can look at the bigger-picture regarding the Assad injury and regression.
The Cubs' rotation carried this ballclub for a bit. As noted, Assad had a 2.27 ERA through May. Shota Imanaga put up an 0.84 ERA through nine starts. Jameson Taillon sits at 2.90 right now. Justin Steele got hurt on Opening Day, but has generally been very good (3.08 ERA in 11 starts). Ben Brown made some good starts and Jordan Wicks had a few.
The point is, the Cubs' rotation was a bright spot for a good portion of the season, but the rest of the team hasn't given them the help they need. Since the Cubs started 17-9, the offense has fallen apart. The Cubs currently sit 11th in the NL in runs scored, 12th in average, eighth in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging. Basically, they're only good at drawing walks.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has taken 22 losses (second in the majors to only the hapless White Sox) and blown 17 saves (again, second to the White Sox -- when do the Bears start again?).
Basically, ever since the 17-9 start -- when the offense was going well -- the pitching staff has been expected to make the smallest of leads hold up nearly every game and the bullpen isn't up to the task. In fact, the bullpen hasn't been up to the task all season.
The defense isn't good, either. The Cubs rank below average in defensive efficiency, in the bottom third in defensive runs saved and nearly the bottom in total zone runs. They look bad via the eye test.
So all the pressure falls on the starting rotation. Take Steele's outing earlier this week as a microcosm. The Cubs left seven runners in scoring position and scored four runs. Steele had only allowed two runs through the first seven innings and manager Craig Counsell, given the dreck available in the bullpen, tried to get Steele through the eighth. After a walk and strikeout, the box score shows Steele allowed a double to deep right-center, but it was badly misplayed by right fielder Seiya Suzuki (who has been misplaying balls all season out there). Tyson Miller came on in relief and struck out two to strand the runners, but then in the ninth, the Cubs' bullpen blew the game, losing on a walk-off walk. Steele is 0-3 on the season.
Even when the rotation was carrying the weight for the club, there had to be some concern that the starters would regress and the team would get even worse. With Imanaga having two meltdowns in the last five starts, Assad regressing in the last month and now being hurt, it seems that scenario is upon us.
The Cubs started 17-9. Since then, they are an NL-worst 20-35 with a -58 run differential.
Overall, the Cubs are 37-44 and in last place in what was supposed to be a very winnable division for them.
